The WTO report shows that global trade in services has been steadily picking up recently

This newspaper from Geneva (Reporter Yang Haiquan) The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest global service trade barometer on March 11, showing that after experiencing a sharp decline during the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global service trade has recently steadily increased , The growth momentum is higher than the trend level, and it is in the stage of recovery. However, the continued weakness of certain industries in the service trade and the unequal distribution of new crown pneumonia vaccines have cast doubt on the durability of the service trade recovery. Generally speaking, although the global service trade has rebounded in the short term, the long-term prospects are still uncertain.

The latest reading of the WTO's Global Trade in Services Barometer is 104.7, which is much higher than the benchmark value of 100. This is the strongest reading on record (since 2000), showing that the growth of global trade in services is in line with recent trends. The latest reading is also significantly higher than the low point of 91.2 during the peak of the global implementation of epidemic-related lockdown restrictions in March 2020. The strength of this rebound indicates that global service trade has accelerated its growth in the fourth quarter after bottoming out in the second quarter of 2020 and picking up slightly in the third quarter.

However, since the beginning of this year, the blockade and restrictive measures adopted by various countries in response to the second wave of COVID-19 continue to put pressure on the growth and employment of major global economies. The growth momentum of global service trade may not be possible in the first quarter of 2021. continued.

The impact of the second wave of the epidemic on global service trade is reflected in the component index of the service trade barometer, including the continued weakness of air transport (the latest reading is 81) and the downturn of information and communication technology (ICT) services (the latest reading is 93.7). International passenger flights may continue to be weak at least in the second quarter of this year. If governments can successfully vaccinate their people against the new crown pneumonia, air transport international passenger traffic may experience a partial recovery in the third quarter, but the prospects for this recovery are subject to Will the spread of new variants of the new coronavirus cause new setbacks? The decline in the ICT index may be temporary. This is mainly caused by the recent implementation of stricter epidemic lockdown restrictions in the United States, which has put some computer services under pressure, while global telecommunications services have generally remained stable. In contrast, other sub-indices of the Global Service Trade Barometer are above the trend level, including the Global Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index (105.3), Container Shipping Index (104.3) and Construction Industry Index (106.3). The financial services index (119.9) performed particularly strongly, reflecting the rise in international financial transactions.